Chertoff bases warning of terror risk on 'gut feeling'

[AuGmENTor]

Chertoff bases warning of terror risk on 'gut feeling'

Homeland chief says he's offering an assessment, not a prediction
By E.A. TORRIERO
McClatchy-Tribune
July 11, 2007, 8:32AM
(AuGmENTor: With all of their constitutional violations of our privacy, they better NOT let another one happen, real or false flag.)
CHICAGO — Fearing complacency among the American people over possible terror threats, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said in Chicago on Tuesday that the nation faces a heightened chance of an attack this summer.

"I believe we are entering a period this summer of increased risk," Chertoff told the Chicago Tribune's editorial board in an unusually blunt and frank assessment of America's terror threat level.

"Summertime seems to be appealing to them," he said of al-Qaida. "We do worry that they are rebuilding their activities."

Still, Chertoff said there are not enough indications of an imminent plot to raise the current threat levels nationwide. And he indicated his remarks were based on "a gut feeling" formed by past seasonal patterns of terrorist attacks, recent al-Qaida statements, and intelligence he did not disclose.

There is an assessment "not of a specific threat, but of increased vulnerability," he added.

There have been reports already that suggest intelligence warnings at a similar level to the summer before Sept. 11, 2001 and that al-Qaida may be mobilizing.

In recent days, ABC news reported that a secret law enforcement report prepared for homeland security warns that al-Qaida is preparing a "spectacular" summer attack. On Tuesday, ABC News also reported that "new intelligence suggests a small al-Qaida cell is on its way to the United States, or may already be here."

"We could easily be attacked," Chertoff added. "The intent to attack us remains as strong as it was on Sept. 10, 2001."

The dire warnings and Chertoff's comments come as the Bush administration faces political and business opposition over its immigration and border policies that have security implications.

With stiff blowback on those issues, the administration has been unsuccessful in efforts to enact broader security measures — ones opponents fear are too costly, unnecessary and infringe on people's rights.

Chertoff said, too, that the recent failure of Congress to pass an immigration bill has negative repercussions for homeland security and will lead to continued federal crackdowns on illegal immigrants.

Resistance has built as well, he said, from business and travel interests blocking his proposals to tighten border security, especially with Canada.

[Eckolaker]

I swear if anything happens this summer, I am personally going to beat down his fucking door.

What a bunch of absolute shit!

This further proves how we are right about all of this. As more and more people become informed, they can only try to scare us back into submission by ramping up terror threats. I suspect that any watersheding event in the truth movement will likely bring about one last ditched effort by the neocons to get us under full control.

One way or the other, I see troubled times ahead. Oh how much I hate being a cynic.

[AuGmENTor]

Calm grasshopper... Remember, Cherty told us it was a "feeling," not a prediction.
Love your myspace btw.

[Eckolaker]

Thanks

[beltman713]

These are the same fuckers who knew that Katrina was a major hurricane and did nothing, even after the hurricane hit and the levies broke, they still sat around for days and did nothing. They can't do anything when they have advanced warning about something, or even respond to something after it has already happened. What the hell are they going to do with a "Gut feeling"?

[Gold9472]

My "gut feeling" is that there is going to be another "terrorist attack" by the terrorists sitting in the White House, and elsewhere.

[Gold9472]

Chairman Thompson Responds to Chertoff’s “Gut Feeling”

http://www.speaker.gov/blog/?p=569

July 11th, 2007 by Jesse Lee

Yesterday Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff was reported to have made the following remarks:

Homeland Security chief warns of ‘increased risk’ (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-070710chertoff,0,2190289.story)
E.A. Torriero, Chicago Tribune - July 11, 2007

Chertoff bases ‘gut feeling’ on history, Al Qaeda statements

Fearing complacency among the American people over possible terror threats, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said in Chicago Tuesday that the nation faces a heightened chance of an attack this summer.

“I believe we are entering a period this summer of increased risk,” Chertoff told the Chicago Tribune’s editorial board in an unusually blunt and frank assessment of America’s terror threat level.

“Summertime seems to be appealing to them,” he said of al-Qaeda. “We do worry that they are rebuilding their activities.”

Still, Chertoff said there are not enough indications of an imminent plot to raise the current threat levels nationwide. And he indicated that his remarks were based on “a gut feeling” formed by past seasonal patterns of terrorist attacks, recent al-Qaeda statements, and intelligence he did not disclose.
Today, Committee on Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie G. Thompson sent the following letter to Chertoff demanding an explanation of the Secretary’s remarks:

July 11, 2007

Dear Secretary Chertoff:

Over the past five years, tens of billions of taxpayer dollars have been dedicated to standing up and building capacity at the Department of Homeland Security. The Department of Homeland Security is charged with deterring, preventing and responding to the threat of terrorism. To that end, systems have been erected to identify risks and communicate them to the American public. With all the resources you have at your disposal and all the progress that you assure us that you are making, I cannot understand why you are quoted in the Chicago Tribune as saying you have a “gut feeling” that we are entering a period of heightened risk this summer.

Words have power, Mr. Secretary. You must choose them wisely—especially when they relate to the lives and security of the American public. What color code in the Homeland Security Advisory System is associated with a “gut feeling?” What sectors should be on alert as a result of your “gut feeling?” What cities should be asking their law enforcement to work double shifts because of your “gut feeling?” Are the American people supposed to purchase duct tape and plastic sheeting because of your “gut feeling?”

The Committee on Homeland Security has repeatedly emphasized the importance of getting specific, actionable information to our first preventers in law enforcement and other emergency response providers. I urge you to follow up on your “gut feeling” and share whatever information our nation’s first preventers need to be on alert and prepared. Otherwise, we run the risk of communities taking it upon themselves to mobilize for every possible threat. This not only would result in communities depleting their scarce homeland security resources but runs contrary to your efforts to move toward a risk-based approach to homeland security.

This fall, we will be marking the sixth anniversary of the most deadly terrorist attack on U.S. soil. With likely action on legislation to implement the unfinished business of the 9/11 Commission, Congress is poised to give you more and better opportunities to work with law enforcement in a constructive manner.

Mr. Secretary, I urge you to clarify your comments by providing concrete direction to the State, local and tribal stakeholders and if necessary make the required changes to the Nation’s threat level to ensure that the American public can take the necessary steps to protect their families, businesses and communities.

I would be happy to convene a classified briefing of our Members to discuss the threat to our nation if you believe that such a briefing is warranted.

Sincerely,

Bennie G. Thompson

Chairman, Committee on Homeland Security

[Gold9472]

White House: No specific terror threat against US

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-07-11T142318Z_01_N11392127_RTRIDST_0_USA-SECURITY-THREAT.XML

Wed Jul 11, 2007

WASHINGTON, July 11 (Reuters) - The Bush administration said on Wednesday there was no specific, credible terrorism threat against the United States and denied that an emergency meeting had been called.

ABC News reported on Tuesday that the White House had called an urgent multi-agency session for Thursday to discuss a potential new al Qaeda threat on U.S. soil.

White House officials said it was a regularly scheduled meeting and not attended by the most senior national security officials.

"There continues to be no credible, specific intelligence to suggest that there is an imminent threat to the homeland," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said.

"There is no emergency meeting," he said.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff had told the Chicago Tribune's editorial board his "gut feeling" was that the United States faced an increased risk of attack this summer.

Fratto said he was not aware that Chertoff had made those feelings known to President George W. Bush.

[AuGmENTor]

WASHINGTON, July 11 (Reuters) - The Bush administration said on Wednesday there was no specific, credible terrorism threat against the United States and denied that an emergency meeting had been called.


Didn't they say words to this effect in response to why the were caught with their pants down on 911?

[AuGmENTor]

U.S. Intel Warns al-Qaida Has Rebuilt
Jul 12 01:28 AM US/Eastern
By KATHERINE SHRADER and MATTHEW LEE
Associated Press Writers
WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded al-Qaida has rebuilt its operating capability to a level not seen since just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, The Associated Press has learned.


The conclusion suggests that the network that launched the most devastating terror attack on the United States has been able to regroup along the Afghan-Pakistani border despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at crippling it.

Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific, credible threat of a new attack on U.S. soil.

A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the new government threat assessment called it a stark appraisal to be discussed at the White House on Thursday as part of a broader meeting on an upcoming National Intelligence (http://search.breitbart.com/q?s=) Estimate.

The official and others spoke on condition of anonymity because the secret report remains classified.

Counterterrorism analysts produced the document, titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West." The document focuses on the terror group's safe haven (http://search.breitbart.com/q?s=) in Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to the United States and its allies, officials said.

Al-Qaida is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States."

The group also has created "the most robust training program since with an interest in using European operatives," the official quoted the report as saying.

At the same time, this official said, the report speaks of "significant gaps in intelligence" so U.S. authorities may be ignorant of potential or planned attacks.

John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the concerns about al-Qaida's resurgence during testimony and conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday.

"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that activity rising."

The threat assessment comes as the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies (http://search.breitbart.com/q?s=) prepare a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the United States. A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being finalized, said the document has been in the works for roughly two years.

Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell would not comment on the details of that analysis. "Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said, adding that it would probably be ready for distribution this summer.

Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about al- Qaida's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.

Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer time frame to the concern. In studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise that al-Qaida would consider attacking the U.S. a "home run hit" and that the easiest way to get into the United States would be through Europe.

The new threat assessment puts particular focus on Pakistan, as did Kringen.

"Sooner or later you have to quit permitting them to have a safe haven" along the Afghan-Pakistani border, he told the House committee. "At the end of the day, when we have had success, it is when you've been able to get them worried about who was informing on them, get them worried about who was coming after them."

Several European countries—among them Britain, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands—are also highlighted in the threat assessment partly because they have arrangements with the Pakistani government (http://search.breitbart.com/q?s=) that allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than others, according to the counterterrorism official.

This is more troubling because all four are part of the U.S. visa waiver program, and their citizens can enter the United States without additional security scrutiny, the official said.

The report also notes that al-Qaida has increased its public statements, although analysts stressed that those video and audio messages aren't reliable indicators of the actions the group may take.

The Bush administration (http://www.breitbart.com/detail.php?searchText=) has repeatedly cited al-Qaida as a key justification for continuing the fight in Iraq.

"The No. 1 enemy in Iraq is al-Qaida," White House press secretary Tony Snow said Wednesday. "Al-Qaida continues to be the chief organizer of mayhem within Iraq, the chief organization for killing innocent Iraqis."

The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the administration is struggling to defend its decision for a military buildup in Iraq. A progress report that the White House is releasing to Congress this week is expected to indicate scant progress on the political and military benchmarks set for Iraq.

The threat assessment says that al-Qaida stepped up efforts to "improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government signed a peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively removed government military presence from the northwest frontier with Afghanistan.

The agreement allows Taliban and al-Qaida operatives to move across the border with impunity and establish and run training centers, the report says, according to the official.

It also says that al-Qaida is particularly interested in building up the numbers in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is not as great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.

"Being No. 3 in al-Qaida is a bad job. We regularly get to the No. 3 person," Tom Fingar, the top U.S. intelligence analyst, told the House panel.

The counterterror official said the report does not focus on al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, his whereabouts or his role in the terrorist network. Officials say al-Qaida has become more like a "family- oriented" mob organization with leadership roles in cells and other groups being handed from father to son, or cousin to uncle.

Yet bin Laden's whereabouts are still of great interest to intelligence agencies. Although he has not been heard from for some time, Kringen said officials believe he is still alive and living under the protection of tribal leaders in the border area.

Armed Services Committee members expressed frustration that more was not being done to get bin Laden and tamp down activity in the tribal areas. The senior intelligence analysts tried to portray the difficulty of operating in the area despite a $25 million bounty on the head of bin Laden and his top deputy.

"They are in an environment that is more hostile to us than it is to al-Qaida," Fingar said. ___ http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8QAROG00&show_article=1

[Eckolaker]

They are planning something.