Gold9472
01-16-2006, 07:17 PM
Islamists gain ground from American push for Mideast democracy
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002742696_mideastdem16.html
By Warren P. Strobel
1/16/2006
WASHINGTON — Call it a case of why you should be careful what you wish for.
President Bush's efforts to spread democracy to the Middle East have strengthened Islamists across the region, posing fresh challenges for the United States, according to U.S. officials, foreign diplomats and democracy experts.
Islamist parties trounced secular opponents in recent elections in Iraq and Egypt.
Hamas, the armed Islamic Palestinian group, appears set to fare well in Palestinian parliamentary elections Jan. 25, posing a quandary for how the United States and Israel pursue peace efforts. Hamas has carried out suicide bombings against Israel and calls for the country's destruction.
In Lebanon, the Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah is part of the government for the first time.
Washington considers Hezbollah and Hamas, both of which have Iranian support, to be terrorist groups.
"In the short run, the big windfall winners ... have been the Islamists," said Michael McFaul, a Stanford University expert on democracy and development.
In the long run, democracy probably will lead to a more stable, economically flourishing Middle East, McFaul recently told a Washington conference. But, he added, "We're taking a chance."
Islamist groups espouse Islam as the answer to their countries' problems. They appeal to large segments of Arab societies, particularly when the only alternative is the repressive state apparatus. They have proved adept at providing social services that governments often don't, and they largely are free of the financial corruption found in many Arab countries.
Most strongly oppose U.S. foreign policy in the region and don't acknowledge Israel's right to exist. Their long-term commitment to the give-and-take of the democratic process is largely untested.
Bush administration officials and many pro-democracy advocates argue that Islamist politicians inevitably will become more moderate when given the responsibilities of power. That hasn't happened, however, in Iran, which is Shiite but not Arab.
"It's entirely possible, but I think it's going to be a bumpy ride," said F. Gregory Gause III, director of Middle East studies at the University of Vermont.
Bush used his second inaugural address last January to make spreading democracy, particularly in the Islamic world, the priority of U.S. foreign policy. The ultimate goal, he declared, is "ending tyranny in our world."
The United States is spending roughly $1.3 billion in fiscal year 2006 to promote democracy worldwide, Bush said in May. He says democracy will reduce the terrorism threat. Some political scientists, including Gause, disagree.
Even Bush's critics give him credit for convincing Arab regimes that Washington is serious about democracy and for encouraging a tide of relative openness from North Africa to the Persian Gulf. Pushing democracy slowly is becoming entrenched as a priority at the State Department under Condoleezza Rice and at other agencies, officials said.
But the successes are far more modest than the White House has described them, some said.
"Freedom is crawling — over broken glass," said a State Department official, scaling back the president's frequent contention that "freedom is on the march." The official requested anonymity in order to speak more frankly.
Bush and Rice rarely discuss in public the prospect that Islamists could be the prime beneficiaries of their policies.
Asked at a town-hall event Wednesday in Louisville, Ky., about the lack of separation between church and state in much of the Middle East, the president replied: "It's going to be the spread of democracy itself that shows folks the importance of separation of church and state." He cited Iraq's new constitution, which says Islam is "a basic source of legislation" but guarantees rights to the country's non-Islamic and non-Arab citizens.
Last year, there were elections in Iraq and the Palestinian Authority; Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak allowed the first multiparty presidential elections; and Syria pulled troops from Lebanon under pressure, leading to new elections there.
But a more sober mood has set in.
"People were overly optimistic," said former State Department official Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national-security research center. "And now people are overly pessimistic."
Repression and one-man rule remain the norm.
The Economist magazine's Intelligence Unit in November gave only two countries in the Middle East relatively high marks on a 10-point scale of political freedom: Israel (8.20) and Lebanon (6.55).
Morocco, Iraq and the Palestinian areas each scored slightly above 5 points, while 15 countries didn't reach that halfway mark. Libya received the lowest score, 2.05.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002742696_mideastdem16.html
By Warren P. Strobel
1/16/2006
WASHINGTON — Call it a case of why you should be careful what you wish for.
President Bush's efforts to spread democracy to the Middle East have strengthened Islamists across the region, posing fresh challenges for the United States, according to U.S. officials, foreign diplomats and democracy experts.
Islamist parties trounced secular opponents in recent elections in Iraq and Egypt.
Hamas, the armed Islamic Palestinian group, appears set to fare well in Palestinian parliamentary elections Jan. 25, posing a quandary for how the United States and Israel pursue peace efforts. Hamas has carried out suicide bombings against Israel and calls for the country's destruction.
In Lebanon, the Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah is part of the government for the first time.
Washington considers Hezbollah and Hamas, both of which have Iranian support, to be terrorist groups.
"In the short run, the big windfall winners ... have been the Islamists," said Michael McFaul, a Stanford University expert on democracy and development.
In the long run, democracy probably will lead to a more stable, economically flourishing Middle East, McFaul recently told a Washington conference. But, he added, "We're taking a chance."
Islamist groups espouse Islam as the answer to their countries' problems. They appeal to large segments of Arab societies, particularly when the only alternative is the repressive state apparatus. They have proved adept at providing social services that governments often don't, and they largely are free of the financial corruption found in many Arab countries.
Most strongly oppose U.S. foreign policy in the region and don't acknowledge Israel's right to exist. Their long-term commitment to the give-and-take of the democratic process is largely untested.
Bush administration officials and many pro-democracy advocates argue that Islamist politicians inevitably will become more moderate when given the responsibilities of power. That hasn't happened, however, in Iran, which is Shiite but not Arab.
"It's entirely possible, but I think it's going to be a bumpy ride," said F. Gregory Gause III, director of Middle East studies at the University of Vermont.
Bush used his second inaugural address last January to make spreading democracy, particularly in the Islamic world, the priority of U.S. foreign policy. The ultimate goal, he declared, is "ending tyranny in our world."
The United States is spending roughly $1.3 billion in fiscal year 2006 to promote democracy worldwide, Bush said in May. He says democracy will reduce the terrorism threat. Some political scientists, including Gause, disagree.
Even Bush's critics give him credit for convincing Arab regimes that Washington is serious about democracy and for encouraging a tide of relative openness from North Africa to the Persian Gulf. Pushing democracy slowly is becoming entrenched as a priority at the State Department under Condoleezza Rice and at other agencies, officials said.
But the successes are far more modest than the White House has described them, some said.
"Freedom is crawling — over broken glass," said a State Department official, scaling back the president's frequent contention that "freedom is on the march." The official requested anonymity in order to speak more frankly.
Bush and Rice rarely discuss in public the prospect that Islamists could be the prime beneficiaries of their policies.
Asked at a town-hall event Wednesday in Louisville, Ky., about the lack of separation between church and state in much of the Middle East, the president replied: "It's going to be the spread of democracy itself that shows folks the importance of separation of church and state." He cited Iraq's new constitution, which says Islam is "a basic source of legislation" but guarantees rights to the country's non-Islamic and non-Arab citizens.
Last year, there were elections in Iraq and the Palestinian Authority; Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak allowed the first multiparty presidential elections; and Syria pulled troops from Lebanon under pressure, leading to new elections there.
But a more sober mood has set in.
"People were overly optimistic," said former State Department official Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national-security research center. "And now people are overly pessimistic."
Repression and one-man rule remain the norm.
The Economist magazine's Intelligence Unit in November gave only two countries in the Middle East relatively high marks on a 10-point scale of political freedom: Israel (8.20) and Lebanon (6.55).
Morocco, Iraq and the Palestinian areas each scored slightly above 5 points, while 15 countries didn't reach that halfway mark. Libya received the lowest score, 2.05.